Carriers are also important since they will make naval fleet defense for PLAN much more easier and keep US aircraft further out and away; something that their rocket force--PLARF--already does against US ships. Absolutely no one in the PRC cares about Taiwan materialistically except the mercantilist class but no one listens to merchants. The US in this situation is just following this agreement made between China and Taiwan like the rest of the world. The problem is that China has spent at least the past 20 years, partly informed by observations of how the U.S. conducted the Gulf War in the 1990s, preparing for … The opposite was true for China, as anti-war riots sprung up throughout the country, the government would crack down on these and drag the war for longer, unsurprisingly causing more anti-war riots and unrest, who could've guessed?, especially when the U.S. … Further, the current generation of mainland Chinese has been hearing propaganda of "we'll retake Taiwan soon!" Oh wait. How many jets in the air do we need and why so many? You think a nuclear apocalypse is somehow good for the USA? Meanwhile, whatever they do, the military balance in the area will continue to shift against them. As long as the people of Taiwan continue to believe that they have a blank check from the United States that they can fill out in American blood, they will free feel to temporize. OP's two conditions are not unreasonable, but I think he is coming at the angle wrong. Cabinet now meet with Taiwan officials and travel to Taiwan. No doubt, the war delayed some of the demobs and civilian investments the PRC were planning to make in the '50-53 period but for the most part, the Korean War was treated as a limited war. China might seem in a better position to cope with a trade war, since it is a heavily managed economy and the government squashes political resistance. All viewpoints and opinions are welcome here, but please read the rules in the … The fact they are contravening their overriding economic imperatives to invest precious trillions into the military should tell you they have no delusions of American passivity in the event of a Taiwan conflict. More posts from the LessCredibleDefence community, Continue browsing in r/LessCredibleDefence. Cookies help us deliver our Services. Edit: There's an X-factor here that I rarely see discussed. There are a couple of other smaller ones, but those are the most significant ones. I highly recommend you read the entire thing. (Recommended: A Nuclear Nightmare: If China and Japan Went to War) Japan’s fleet of 16 submarines, in the process of being increased to 22, will be the most effective active defense. Donald Trump is losing his tech war with China's Xi Jinping Author and journalist Dilip Hiro on how Trump's onslaught of "China bashing" is a losing battle. As someone familiar with the US, you should understand the concept of unshakeable values instilled into people since birth, held sacred by everyone they grew up around, assumed to be an inalienable truth by the entirety of American society. This is quite a gamble, to say the least. The United States has returned to Cold War-style championing of Taipei’s diplomatic relations with third countries, punishing those that switch relations to Beijing. *Propaganda The article writes about “One China” as if it’s the US agreeing to ignore Taiwan and only interact with China, but it’s actually just an agreement between Taiwan and China that allows for them to “agree to disagree” that there is only one China. Ask American Southerners, the Basques, the Chechens, Biafra’s Igbos, the Kurds, the Palestinians, or the Tibetans about this. A handful of islands that immediately on cue will repeat the Donbas scenario except with imported "we want return to the motherland" demonstrators? “Reconquest” of Spratly Islands (Year 2025 to 2030) After unification of Taiwan, China will take a … I don't believe this will be the case. jump to content. The roles of Japan and Korea in such a conflict have been discussed quite widely, and from my reading their intentions (especially that of Korea) remains somewhat undeclared. *Anecdotes & tidbits i think their plan is to finish the BRI and replace the petrodollar with the yuan which will crush america economically. The PRC obviously operates under the assumption the US will devote stupendous amounts of lives and treasure to a Taiwan conflict. This will be a bit rambly. 2 years ago. It was for Russia with respect to Crimea. Here is a long except from Chas Article. However, I don't see the same scrutiny being applied to the position of the PRC and the CCP. I'm not sure how you've missed these changes. It IS an act of war to fire upon another nation's vessels. Fine. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kinmen,Matsu,Wuciou.png. The United States and China were allies during World War II and more than 250,000 Americans served in what was known as the "China-Burma-India" theater. If the CCP and the KMT can figure out a way to rhetorically disentangle the narratives of their respective sovereignties from the concept of a unified China, then there would be a vastly smaller chance of conflict. Why are Chinese sending a plane after plane to almost violate the airspace? And as it stands right now that will be a blood bath. Western countries need to cut trade with China and stop relying on cheep Chinese labor. Sorry, this post was deleted by the person who originally posted it. This is kindergarten strategy. Many Taiwanese, about 2 million, live in China and many migrate there because of better economic opportunities as compared to their homeland. I usually see so much scrutiny over US Taiwan policy and how the status quo has changed since the US-PRC detente. Without one shot over Taiwan the economy grinds to a halt. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. Kevin Rudd has warned that the risk of a “hot war” between China and the United States that includes actual armed conflict is now “especially high” for the first time since the 1950s. there are already a significant number of old KMT cold warriors who hate the DPP and dont see a reason to be anti-prc anymore. Once it's war or war they might want to sell Taiwan for a protected status in a special administrative region. Really depends on the aggressor. These are my toys. On November 12, 2020 (nine days after the U.S. presidential election made his boss a lame duck), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo completed the trashing of the “one-China” stipulation by declaring (inaccurately) that “Taiwan has not been part of China.”. And to gain what? Good luck with your rickety fleet of missile boats and old LSTs. As for individuals in the thread who question whether China would be willing to go to war over Taiwan or to do a Taiwan invasion proper, those who don't believe it likely won't have their minds changed here. Thus we arrive at the very essence underlying the majority of erroneous analyses from the West regarding the Taiwan situation. To say that we would not go to war would encourage adventurism by Beijing. Amazon’s Merchants Are Feeling the Pain of a Trade War With China. The balance of power and geographic constraints means a war … The idea of reunification is certainly seen as sacred, but given everyone knows that such a contingency would involve a high possibility of US intervention, it's not like the prospect of war is something that is actively and enthusiastically desired or anticipated, rather than a deadly prospect but which must still be undertaken due to a sense of historical justice. As was true of Hanoi, Beijing is a determinedly nationalist opponent that enjoys the balance of fervor in its struggle to end the American-backed division of its country. Taiwan's most significant export I think is semiconductors with TSMC. They pertain to the values instilled into every Chinese that doesn't grow up to be a merchant. In that instance I do agree that China will go all in with whatever they have. Why would China need to take Taiwan at all? However, China is hardly static. Reddit. By using our Services or clicking I agree, you agree to our use of cookies. Founding Chairman of Quilliam Maajid Nawaz believes “China is preparing for war” as tensions between Beijing and the west increase due to a proposed investigation into the origins of COVID-19. China and its people have their own founding principles that underpin their entire society and it can be summarised with two words: territorial integrity. Credit to OP for thinking about this, and credit to OP for citing Mr Freeman's recent article. popular-all-random-users | AskReddit-funny-gaming-news ... Biden will have to stop Trump's trade war with China, get rid of tariffs. Cyber attacks will cut out the communications with the island and the narrative will be one staged by whatever Beijing will let slip. The US would have already mustered such a force because a PRC buildup for an amphibious invasion would be very obvious well in advance of the actual invasion. Further, the current generation of mainland Chinese has been hearing propaganda of "we'll retake Taiwan soon!" KMT has significant support in military and law enforcement as well as among the business elites. ... help Reddit App Reddit coins Reddit premium Reddit gifts. But I think it very much is an exceptional to believe that the Chinese govt -- with all of the open declared geopolitical intent and repeated statements over Taiwan they've made through the decades, and the scale and intensity of their military advancement and procurement in this time -- is not decidedly serious about Taiwan as a geopolitical interest and arguably the single biggest and most active geopolitical interest it has. It's amazing that people think that the planners in Beijing are amateurs. Cookies help us deliver our Services. Fight. yes let's have a war with a nuclear power under an authoritarian government. The Chinese economy would collapse and the CCP would fall -- same as what happened to the Soviets. Given the vast changes both the Chinese economy and its military have undergone in recent decades, why is their decision-making process still approached from the perspective of the CCP's founding, rather than viewed as continuously evolving in all areas, Taiwan included? It is the clearest rendition of the various perspectives from the China, US and Taiwan sides that I've read in recent years, in the English language at any rate. It's all emotional, there is nothing directly rational about the PRC leadership and population's position on Taiwan. And all over what? Taiwan separatists know they can neither persuade the mainland to grant them independence nor win a war of secession with it. I am, of course, referring to the absolute devotion all Americans have to the principle "that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.". view in app. The world will be so much better of without the CCP. If US economic influence in the region continues to diminish while China's grows, it will have a demoralizing effect on Taiwan and might lead them into accepting/negotiating re-unification; some sort of 1-country, 2-systems type where Taiwan at least will have say in how things should run. Taiwan has reemerged as a major purchaser of U.S. weaponry. Instead, they will likely be declaring a resumption of the Chinese Civil War with what they have as fast as practically possible. By that same logic, the US would suddenly lose everything they import from China. In them, the U.S. government promised that it would no longer maintain official relations with Taipei, that it would have no troops and military installations on the island, and that it would sell only carefully selected defensive weapons to Taiwan on a restrained basis. It's quite simply an inherent compulsion to exert sovereignty over Taiwan purely for the sake of exerting sovereignty, not for anything else Taiwan could offer; not semiconductor manufacturing, not R&D potential, not naval basing, nothing of this sort whatsoever. Over the nearly fifty years since the Nixon administration first embraced the notion of “one-China,” it served as the essential underpinning of Sino-American peace and the absence of armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Not unsurprising given the past tenure of Mr Freeman and the era of diplomacy he is from. Second, most Americans find aspirations for self-determination compelling and are unaware or dismissive of the risks entailed in an attempt by Taiwan to achieve it. Join. The world's two largest economies have been locked in a bruising trade war since Trump in March last year imposed tariff hikes of up to 25 per cent on USD 250 billion of Chinese goods. Conversation relating to changes to US policy is more common from your perspective because, one, you read English which means any analyses on the other side of the language barrier are basically inaccessible to you and, two, the US policy has far more room to change than the PRC policy since the Taiwan question has limited implications for the American national ethos and mythos. Return them to Taiwan. These conditions being met is what will initiate re-unification whether with force or not. LinkedIn. There is zero possibility you could bribe the Chinese population (sans merchants) with material benefits to become indifferent to their nation's territorial integrity. Trump will 'get his share of blame' for Capitol riot. Yet its … The world has a perfect excuse to sit back and do nothing because why would you support an aggressor who shoots peaceful protestors? Email. Why has China taken so seriously disputes over basically worthless territory in places like Aksai Chin, Spratly Islands, Zhengbao Island, Diaoyu Islands and a few others? The relationship between the United States and China will be a central issue for Joe Biden's presidency, Alexander Görlach writes. But regardless, none of China's redlines were crossed in the past when they were much weaker, so my assumptions are that they will never be crossed now that China is much stronger and time is only on their side. There are reports that there are once again American military personnel in Taiwan teaching its armed forces how to conduct operations against the mainland. Removing ambiguity from the U.S. commitment would just encourage them to push the envelope even more than they already have. The Vietnam War was a major event that shaped the course of the world in the second half of the 20th century. r/China: A community for discussing China and topics related to it. view in app. Any war stemming from disputes in the East China Sea will necessarily involve Japan. KMT wants reunification with a stake in China. China is their idol. The CCP is bad, but I would never sacrifice myself or my friends for the sake of rich people, that just happened to be born in my region, so that they can have revenge over other rich people that were more effective in the game of capitalism. While SK has considerable SM fabs, Japan does not, and because TSMC has bleeding edge facilities it'll be in their interest to be on the defensive side of Taiwan. I thought about posting it in r/geopolitics but that sub has become garbage and besides this place is experiencing its shares of politics posts thanks to a … I personally think this is the direction it will head because Taiwan would be of much more benefit to the PRC in the long run as a sovereign country, namely because of the potential for further economic integration, as OP already discussed. Right now SWIFT provides connections to CIPS for communication with SWIFT members. And very often their attempts fail. Each is understandable but rests on increasingly dubious presuppositions.

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